Royal College of Physicians calls for NHS England Long Term Workforce Plan to include robust modelling for medical specialty training places

In a thought piece written by Dr Sarah Logan, director of the RCP’s medical workforce unit, Dr Logan emphasises that as the NHS continues to face rising patient demand and a growing workforce shortage, the importance of modelling the supply and demand for medical specialties cannot be underestimated. The first iteration of the LTWP, published in June 2023, marked a critical step towards a sustainably resourced NHS, including the expansion of medical school places to 15,000 by 2031/32. However, the initial plan lacked projections for medical specialty training, citing challenges with granular data.

The College says that the 2025 revision of the LTWP ‘must set out the progress that has been made since 2023 and provide details of the work that is underway to build more detailed and granular specialty workforce data that will enable future projections.’ The RCP was one of over 100 health and care organisations in the Strength in Numbers coalition calling for independently verified projections of the staff needed now and, in the future, to meet patient demand.

The Health Foundation estimates that by 2040, an additional 2.5 million people in the UK will be living with serious illness. Without targeted planning for postgraduate medical specialty training places, the NHS risks falling short in its ability to deliver the high-quality care patients need.

The RCP is calling for a key focus on postgraduate training in the next LTWP revision, expected in 2025. The College highlights the importance of clearer career pathways for medical students entering the workforce through the LTWP expansion, ensuring that future doctors know they can progress into the specialty roles needed to meet patient demand.

Additionally, the RCP is calling for better transparency of the modelling process, echoing the National Audit Office (NAO) report on NHSE’s modelling in the LTWP, published earlier this year, which recommended that NHS England engage with external stakeholders in generating workforce assumptions. The RCP says that by incorporating feedback from medical specialties and clinicians, NHSE can create more accurate and actionable workforce projections.

Adding to her piece published on the RCP’s website, Dr Logan says: " Modelling the health workforce is no easy task but the LTWP still remains a huge opportunity and we cannot let this aspect of it go unaddressed. Comprehensive workforce planning and independent analysis are vital to address current workforce challenges and meet future health needs. We look forward to working closely with NHS England to ensure the future iterations of the LTWP deliver the specialty workforce the NHS and our patients so urgently need."

The piece also calls on NHSE to review the ‘projections for growth in the physician associate (PA) workforce’, reflecting the RCP’s call for a limit in the pace and scale of the PA rollout that was initially set out in the 2023 LTWP.